1 A major historic break
The world is going through, in 2025-2026, a transition phase unprecedented since the end of the Cold War.
Global context
The collapse of multilateralism
We are living through the gradual collapse of the benign globalization launched after 1990. Collective international structures are fading in favor of direct bilateralism, where states negotiate state-to-state rather than through multilateral frameworks.
International institutions in decline
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UN: Entirely absent from the major international crises. Its authority is eroding in the face of unilateral moves by the major powers.
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NATO: Weakened by military interventions taken without collective coordination. Atlantic solidarity is fragmenting.
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WTO: Near-obsolete, replaced by bilateral trade wars and direct tariffs.
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European Union: National diplomacies (Paris, Berlin, London) negotiate directly with Washington instead of speaking with one voice.
2 Cold War 2.0: the US-China confrontation
All of global economic and geopolitical policy comes down to a single factor: direct competition between two empires.
Systemic competition
A race whose prize is global dominance
China modernized at an unprecedented pace over 40 years, but freed itself from the environmental, social and democratic constraints that hold back Western companies. This drove massive deindustrialization in the West. The US administration has decided to retaliate head-on through tariffs and trade wars.
Tariffs begin
April 2025
First massive wave of US trade barriers
Main objective
Weaken China
By restricting access to Western markets
This competition is not temporary. It is redrawing the global economic order for the next two decades, with very clear winners and losers.
3 From petrodollar hegemony to stablecoins
American power rests on an invisible but decisive monetary mechanism: control of the world's reserve currency.
Technological shift
The shift from oil to cryptocurrencies
Since the 1970s, the United States has dominated through the petrodollar system: every country must sell its oil in dollars and buy in dollars, generating an annual flow of USD 3 trillion. This monetary dominance is the true source of American power, far more than military might.
How the system is shifting
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A foreseeable end to oil: the energy transition threatens the very foundation of the petrodollar system.
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Adoption of stablecoins: the United States has orchestrated the legalization of cryptocurrencies to perpetuate its dominance through dollar-backed stablecoins (USDC, USDT).
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Europe's leaking sovereignty: more than 300 billion in stablecoins circulate worldwide. Europe is losing financial autonomy on a massive scale without realizing it.
The targeted attacks on Venezuela and Iran come down to a single fact: both nations dared to sell their oil in Chinese yuan instead of dollars, directly threatening American monetary hegemony.
4 Europe's energy vulnerability
Germany's 2011 strategic blunder destabilized the whole continent and redrew the geopolitical balance.
The German case
How one bad decision penalizes all of Europe
In 2011, Germany decided to abandon nuclear power and base its entire industrial might on cheap Russian natural gas. This self-imposed dependency handed Putin absolute geopolitical leverage to justify his offensive in Ukraine.
Timeline of the German energy crisis
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2011: Political decision to abandon nuclear power for Russian gas.
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2022: Sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. Germany tips into a severe economic crisis.
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2022-2025: Three years of recession. German industry collapses, requiring a €500 billion stimulus plan.
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2025-2026: A slow restart, but German industrial power will never return to its former level.
5 Three predictions for France in 2030
Despite the major geopolitical shocks, France holds historic advantages that could make for an exceptional decade.
Prediction 1: An exceptional decade
After the industrial restructuring and tensions of the 2020s, France will enjoy a strong economic and innovation rebound through the 2030s. The country's historical cycles over the past 500 years show remarkable resilience after each crisis.
Prediction 2: A sharp cut in capital-gains tax
While the flat tax was raised to 31.8% in 2025-2026, it will be brought back down to 25% by 2030 to massively stimulate private investment and entrepreneurship. Governments will come to understand that over-taxing capital stifles wealth creation.
Prediction 3: An entrepreneur at the Élysée
The political profile will change radically. The president elected in 2027 or 2032 will be a former entrepreneur, marking the definitive end of the era of state technocrats. Political leadership will shift toward the experience of markets and building.
The rationale behind these predictions
France enjoys a unique set of conditions: a strong nuclear sector (stable energy), an emerging tech ecosystem (AI, deeptech), an educated workforce, institutional stability and a stable European currency. These strengths position the country to benefit from the post-crisis rebound Europe will see between 2030 and 2040.